July 2025: Showdown

July 2025 is shaping up to be one of the biggest months in recent Hollywood history. Three major tentpole films from three different studios spread throughout the month. Then we also have a few additional films dotted in there too fighting for oxygen in the most crowded of markets. 


Everyone will undoubtedly have a favourite. But which one will win the month? 

How do you measure success anyway? One could be a commercial success but loathed by fans. One could be adored by critics but fail at the box office. It’s tough. 

So. In order to try and cover all bases, I’ve looked at the following criteria: 

  1. Pre-release polling
  2. Opening weekend 
  3. Worldwide box office 
  4. Rotten Tomatoes critics 
  5. IMDb score 
  6. Profitability 


I’ll explain a bit more about what I mean by some of the above in their sections. But before we dive in, we need to meet our contenders: 

  1. Jurassic World Rebirth (02 July 2025)
  2. Superman (11 July 2025)
  3. Smurfs (18 July 2025)
  4. I Know What You Did Last Summer (18 July 2025)
  5. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (25 July 2025)


1. Pre-Release Polling 

Each year, Fandango conduct a couple of polls. Most anticipated film of the year and the most anticipated summer film. This year saw over 5,000 responses to the poll. Three of our July list made that final 10. The ones who didn’t - Smurfs and I Know What You Did Last Summer 

The most anticipated of our list, and actually Fandango’s number 1, was ‘Jurassic World Rebirth’ with ‘The Fantastic Four’ taking second place. ‘Superman’ ended up in 4th spot on the list but on ours it’s good enough for Bronze. 


Points: 

Jurassic World = 5

The Fantastic Four = 4

Superman = 3

Smurfs / I Know What You Did Last Summer = 1


2 Opening Weekend

The opening weekend doesn’t always guarantee succes. But it certainly goes a long way. 

We have some tracking data for the three big films of the summer but not all 5 so a bit of crystal ball gazing is required. 

When I mean, opening weekend predictions, this will just be US figures. 


Smurfs:

  • The first Smurfs movie back in 2011 opened to $35.6m but the most recent effort in 2017 opened to just $13.2m. 
  • Prediction = I don’t feel much buzz for this film yet. $12m 

I Know What You Did Last Summer 

  • The first in the series back in 1997 opened to $15.8m with the sequel in 1998 opening slightly better at $16.5m
  • Prediction = A legacy sequel has potential. Especially in a year where horrors (Sinners, 28 Years Later) have done well at the box office. $21m

Jurassic World Rebirth

  • These have always done well since the original (and best) in 1993. Expect this to continue this trend. 
  • Prediction = Dominion (2022) opened to a staggering $145m which actually was the lowest of the recent trilogy. The start of the month could see big numbers again. Playing safe with $125m

Superman

  • After its first day of pre-sales, Fandango announced that Superman was its best first day ticket seller. DC massively needs a win. This should do wonders for James Gunn with his DCU 
  • Prediction = Reviews could sway this north or south. But I’m going with $130m

The Fantastic Four: First Steps 

  • This was Fandango’s number one of first day of ticket sales before Superman came out so expect these to be close. This seems to be the most anticipated Marvel film of the year. 
  • Prediction = MCU fans go big on opening weekend. I’m going to say it just edges out Superman - $135m


Points: 

The Fantastic Four = 5

Superman = 4

Jurassic World Rebirth = 3

I Know What You Did Last Summer = 2

Smurfs = 1


3 Worldwide Box Office 

It’s not the only way to determine the success after the film’s release but it’s certainly a major argument for it. Again, expect this to be won by the big 3. 


Points:

Jurassic World Rebirth - $900m (5)

Superman - $850m (4)

The Fantastic Four: First Steps - $650m (3)

I Know What You Did… - $165m (2)

Smurfs - $105m (1)


4 Rotten Tomatoes Critics 


This is an area that I personally really struggle to predict. I remember going really high on ‘Ant and the Wasp: Quantumania’ (2023) for it to be the reverse. So I’ll just stick to a ball park! 


Points:

Superman: 85-90% (5)

The Fantastic Four First Steps: 80-85% (4)

Jurassic World Rebirth: 70-75% (3)

I Know What You Did: 55-60% (2)

Smurfs: 47-52% (1)


5 IMDb Score 


This, especially in 2025, is not a cast iron way to judge a movie. Review bombing is rife everywhere. Plus, some fans of franchises don’t tolerate 7s anymore. It’s 10 or bust a lot of the time. 


Points:

The Fantastic Four: First Steps: 7.2-7.5 (5)

Superman: 7.1-7.4 (4)

Jurassic World Rebirth: 6.8-7.1 (3)

I Know What You Did: 5.9-6.2 (2)

Smurfs: 5.5-5.8 (1)


6 Profitability 


Probably not a measure used by many other than box office fans and studio executives. If it’s profitable, you’ll get more. If it’s not, you probably won’t. Some of these are stabs with the budget, but using the worldwide estimates above, looking at how many times over its budget it is predicted to make. 


Smurfs

  • Estimated Budget - $100m
  • Estimated Box Office - $105m
  • Profitability - 1.05 x 

The Fantastic Four: First Steps

  • Estimated Budget - $180m
  • Estimated Box Office - $650m
  • Profitability - 3.61 x

Superman 

  • Estimated Budget - $225m
  • Estimated Box Office - $850m
  • Profitability - 3.77 x 

I Know What You Did Last Summer 

  • Estimated Budget - $35m
  • Estimated Box Office - $165m
  • Profitability - 4.71 x

Jurassic World Rebirth 

  • Estimated Budget - $180m
  • Estimated Box Office - $900m
  • Profitability - 5.00 x 

Points: 

Jurassic World Rebirth - 5

I Know What You Did Last Summer - 4

Superman - 3

The Fantastic Four: First Steps - 2

Smurfs - 1



Overall Winner (apart from us?)


I think this is going to be close and ultimately will come down to personal preference: DCU v MCU v Dinosaurs. 

I think it’s going to be a great month but the dinosaurs will just edge it. 


1. Jurassic World Rebirth - 24

2. Superman - 23

3. The Fantastic Four: First Steps - 23

4. I Know What You Did Last Summer - 13

5. Smurfs - 6


Come the end of August, I’ll be doing a review blog to see how close I was and see who did win this crazy July!



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